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Dynamic risk factors and timing of recidivism for youth in residential placement [2019]

Highlights
• Of the youth who were rearrested during the one year follow-up, about half were rearrested within the first 3 months.

• Cox proportional hazard and multinomial logistic regression models were used to examine the relationship between risk factors enumerated by the Risk-Need-Responsivity model and time to failure.

• The dynamic risk factors related to early failure for males included antisocial attitudes, antisocial personality, delinquent peers, familial relationships, and ties to school.

• The only dynamic risk factor related to shorter time to failure for females was use of leisure time.

• A measure of global exit risk distinguished early failures (0–30 days) from youth who failed later in the follow up period (6–12 months).

Abstract
Purpose
Though prior research has advanced knowledge on the risk factors most related to recidivism, known as the central eight risk factors, there is a dearth of research on whether these risk factors distinguish youth who reoffend at varying time intervals. This study uses the central eight risk factors outlined in the risk-need-responsivity model to examine how dynamic risk factors are related to the timing of recidivism, and how this differs for male and female youth.

Methods
Cox proportional hazard and multinomial logistic regression models were used to examine the relationship between risk factors and time to failure for 2523 male and female youth who completed a juvenile justice residential placement.

Results
The dynamic risk factors related to early failure for males include antisocial attitudes, antisocial personality, delinquent peers, familial relationships, and ties to school. For females, only leisure time was related to early failure. Additionally, both male and female youth with higher global risk scores were more likely to be arrested in the first 30 days post-release than in the 6–12 month time interval.

Conclusions
Youth need to be provided with services tailored to their needs upon reentry, and it is crucial that these services begin immediately upon reentry for higher risk youth.

Celina Cuevas, Kevin T. Wolff, Michael T. Baglivio
Journal of Criminal Justice, Volume 60, January–February 2019
DOI
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